Much awaited predictions by highly-respected Cloudstramus for 2014. These have been arrived by analyzing the current position of stars, reading lot of press releases, tweets, blogs and listening to bullshit artists.
1. PAAS will get absorbed by IAAS vendors
PAAS is not shaping up to be an independent market segment and this will lead to non adoption, and increasingly PAAS vendors will look to IAAS as an anchor to get customer adoption. At the same time, IAAS vendors need to show innovation and they will embrace PAAS to show that. We will see more M&A activity.
2. IAAS as an on-prem option will get a reality check and complexity and frustrations of this option will make IT avoid on-prem IAAS like plague.
Complex upgrades, lack of enterprise capabilities and lack of expertise around on-prem IAAS would result in many more failed projects and word will get around that on-prem IAAS is not a viable option.
3. OpenStack Foundation will get dissolved and a new self-organized group will form that will provide stronger leadership and vision.
Despite having well intentioned and good people in the Foundation, vendors like Oracle, IBM and others will try to derail any potential progress the Foundation can make. Out of frustration, some of the passionate OpenStack folks will come out and form a new group to rescue OpenStack from the clutches of these companies.
4. GCE will mount serious marketing and product challenge to AWS – AWS will start losing some market share.
Early success stories will start emerging in mid 2014 and Google will launch massive marketing and product challenge to AWS. Due to confusion around AWS enterprise pricing and some mis hits, AWS will start losing some market share to GCE.
5. Excitement around Containers will subside and world will start viewing them as another option, not the only option.
Container fanboys will get a reality check and realize that while it is a good option, it is not the only viable option. The unbelievable claims like the computer the size of Internet will start getting challenged more broadly. Containers are here to stay, but as an important component of overall Cloud infrastructure.