Cloudastramus 2014 Predictions

Much awaited predictions by highly-respected Cloudstramus for 2014. These have been arrived by analyzing the current position of stars, reading lot of press releases, tweets, blogs and listening to bullshit artists.

1. PAAS will get absorbed by IAAS vendors

PAAS is not shaping up to be an independent market segment and this will lead to non adoption, and increasingly PAAS vendors will look to IAAS as an anchor to get customer adoption.  At the same time, IAAS vendors need to show innovation and they will embrace PAAS to show that. We will see more M&A activity.

2. IAAS as an on-prem option will get a reality check and complexity and frustrations of this option will make IT avoid on-prem IAAS like plague.

Complex upgrades, lack of enterprise capabilities and lack of expertise around on-prem IAAS would result in many more failed projects and word will get around that on-prem IAAS is not a viable option.

3. OpenStack Foundation will get dissolved and a new self-organized group will form that will provide stronger leadership and vision.

Despite having well intentioned and good people in the Foundation, vendors like Oracle, IBM and others will try to derail any potential progress the Foundation can make. Out of frustration, some of the passionate OpenStack folks will come out and form a new group to rescue OpenStack from the clutches of these companies.

4. GCE will mount serious marketing and product challenge to AWS – AWS will start losing some market share.

Early success stories will start emerging in mid 2014 and Google will launch massive marketing and product challenge to AWS. Due to confusion around AWS enterprise pricing and some mis hits, AWS will start losing some market share to GCE.

5. Excitement around Containers will subside and world will start viewing them as another option, not the only option.

Container fanboys will get a reality check and realize that while it is a good option, it is not the only viable option. The unbelievable claims like the computer the size of Internet will start getting challenged more broadly. Containers are here to stay, but as an important component of overall Cloud infrastructure.

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One thought on “Cloudastramus 2014 Predictions

  1. Powered by a proper pre-Xmas warm up — sponsored by #Ardbeg — and traditional Kazakh (crystal) ball juggling, here’s some added color, if one may:

    #2 — on-prem IaaS and why “exploration learning” and “[commercial] exploitation” are different ballgames

    Boss, there’s only so many early adopters (Netflix / eBay / Intel / etc) willing and able to bolt their balls to a rocket. The rest of the herd of sheep watch the YouTube videos, attend Re:Invent, watch sharepoint preso’s then promptly bleat to their vendor of choice that they want “one of ’em clouds” on premise, under the blanket, “for corporate confidentiality raisins”, dontchaknow.

    Will this be commercially viable ? In the long run, of course not. But as the only things guaranteed in this life are death, taxes and the war of attrition btw AWS and GCE (more below..) that’s not relevant. They simply want it since a) Their vendor FUDs their mngmnt with spectre of shadow IT b) They can use it to learn what this thing is all about.

    So: Yes, but there’s some good mileage to get of that red herring.

    #1 Paas and IaaS converging into sumpin’ new

    I commented on this before, so no need to revisit that (still stand by my comments on this very illustrious site)

    #3 OpenStack Foundation

    Yes, it will truly embrace the joke it is. I’m looking forward to the funny hats.

    #4 GCE and AWS

    In the war of attrition btw King of Retail Bezos the First and the Don’t-do-Evil (but there’s exceptions..) Empire everything in the public cloud space will be pounded and bleached to a fine white dust.
    As any mass conflagration btw quasi-equal powers its consequences will transcend the conflict itself. See #1 and below.

    #5 Containers — why Docker and the like needs to (and will !) grow up.

    The shocking realization that containers mean that all “tenants” share the same kernel will lead to some sobering. However, stuff like ephemeral containers, emulated architecture containers, and containers for IaaS will only grow and mature. Which means folk will realize there’s stuff they do — and stuff they won’t.

    Duh.

    Here’s my 100% safe prediction for 2014:

    Ardbeg Uigeadail will continue to be the best Islay Single Malt. Apart from Lagavulin. And some selected Bruichladdich / Port Charlotte

    /Azamat

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